New sunspot AR1532 is crackling with M-class solar flares, including a brief but intense M6-flare on July 28th. A coronal mass ejection (CME) produced by Saturday’s M6-class flare is heading toward Earth. According to analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the cloud could deliver a glancing blow to our planet’s magnetic field on July 31st around 1500 UT (+/- 7 hours).
The animated forecast track – click for a larger image
This is a slow-moving CME. The cloud’s low speed (382 km/s estimated) combined with its glancing trajectory suggests a weak impact is in the offing. Nevertheless, polar geomagnetic storms are possible when the cloud arrives.
The CME will also hit Mercury, probably with greater force. Mercury’s planetary magnetic field is only ~10% as strong as Earth’s, so Mercury is not well protected from CMEs. When the clouds hit, they can actually scour atoms off Mercury’s surface, adding material to Mercury’s super-thin atmosphere and comet-like tail.
For more information, go to SpaceWeather.com.
Filed under: The Sun
