A NASA-funded study describes how extreme solar
eruptions could have severe consequences for communications, power
grids and other technology on Earth.
The National Academy of Sciences in Washington conducted the study.
The resulting report provides some of the first clear economic data
that effectively quantifies today's risk of extreme conditions in
space driven by magnetic activity on the sun and disturbances in the
near-Earth environment. Instances of extreme space weather are rare
and are categorized with other natural hazards that have a low
frequency but high consequences.
"Obviously, the sun is Earth's life blood, " said Richard Fisher,
director of the Heliophysics division at NASA Headquarters in
Washington. "To mitigate possible public safety issues, it is vital
that we better understand extreme space weather events caused by the
sun's activity."
Besides emitting a continuous stream of plasma called the solar wind,
the sun periodically releases billions of tons of matter called
coronal mass ejections. These immense clouds of material, when
directed toward Earth, can cause large magnetic storms in the
magnetosphere and upper atmosphere. Such space weather can affect the
performance and reliability of space-borne and ground-based
technological systems.
Space weather can produce solar storm electromagnetic fields that
induce extreme currents in wires, disrupting power lines, causing
wide-spread blackouts and affecting communication cables that support
the Internet. Severe space weather also produces solar energetic
particles and the dislocation of the Earth's radiation belts, which
can damage satellites used for commercial communications, global
positioning and weather forecasting. Space weather has been
recognized as causing problems with new technology since the
invention of the telegraph in the 19th century.
A catastrophic failure of commercial and government infrastructure in
space and on the ground can be mitigated through raising public
awareness, improving vulnerable infrastructure and developing
advanced forecasting capabilities. Without preventive actions or
plans, the trend of increased dependency on modern space-weather
sensitive assets could make society more vulnerable in the future.
NASA requested the study to assess the potential damage from
significant space weather during the next 20 years. National and
international experts from industry, government and academia
participated in the study. The report documents the possibility of a
space weather event that has societal effects and causes damage
similar to natural disasters on Earth.
"From a public policy perspective, it is quite significant that we
have begun the extremely challenging task of assessing space weather
impacts in a quantitative way, " said Daniel Baker, professor and
director of the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics at the
University of Colorado in Boulder. Baker chaired the panel that
prepared the report.
"Whether it is terrestrial catastrophes or extreme space weather
incidents, the results can be devastating to modern societies that
depend in a myriad of ways on advanced technological systems, " said
Baker. "We were delighted that NASA helped support bringing together
dozens of world experts from industry and government to share their
experiences and begin planning of improved public policy strategies."
The sun is currently near the minimum of its 11-year activity cycle.
It is expected that solar storms will increase in frequency and
intensity toward the next solar maximum, expected to occur around
2012.
The Heliophysics Division of NASA's Science Mission Directorate in
Washington provided funding for the study. The division seeks to
understand the sun, its solar processes and the interaction of solar
plasma and radiation with Earth, other planets and the universe.
Understanding the connections between the sun and its planets will
allow better prediction on the impacts of solar activity on humans,
technological systems and even the presence of life itself in the
universe.
The National Academies are chartered by Congress to provide
independent technical and scientific advice to the federal
government.
For images related to the study and more information about the
Heliophysics Division, visit: http://nasascience.nasa.gov/heliophysics
To view the National Academy of Sciences' complete report, visit: http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12507.html
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